HVAC Contractors Face Early Winter Price Inflation

Every HVAC contractor expects material costs to spike in the middle of winter. The problem is the spike often starts long before the first cold snap hits.

Seasonal demand pushes suppliers to adjust their pricing early. Inventory gets tight. Dealers shift terms. Freight costs rise. All of this happens weeks before most contractors start paying attention. By the time winter is in full swing, the drift has already worked its way into invoices.

If you want to protect your margins, you have to watch the pricing changes that happen before the season officially begins.

Seasonal Demand Pushes Prices Earlier Than You Expect

Winter jobs stack up fast. Service calls increase. Replacement work jumps. Emergency calls rise with the temperature drop.

Suppliers know this pattern better than anyone.

To get ahead of the rush, they update their pricing early. That means the cost of compressors, coils, motors, copper, and chemicals often starts to rise long before the first major freeze. If your team is not watching these changes monthly, you will catch them only after you have already paid for them.

This is where most HVAC companies fall behind. They assume pricing peaks in December or January. In reality, many suppliers start drifting their lists in late October or early November.

Supplier Updates Happen Quietly

Suppliers rarely announce a price change loudly. Most adjustments happen quietly.

A few cents here. A lost discount there. A revised freight charge on a high-turnover part.

Your AP team approves the invoice because nothing looks wrong. Your techs order the same SKUs they have used for months. Your managers see the same items at the same quantities.

But the numbers in the background are changing.

That slow drift is where profit disappears.

The Real Risk: High-Turnover SKUs

HVAC businesses depend on a long list of parts that move quickly. Fans. Capacitors. Valves. Filters. Motors. Copper fittings.

These items are the first to drift because they are updated more frequently. If you are not checking them monthly, you are running on assumptions instead of reality.

A single SKU that drifts across hundreds of jobs can quietly drain thousands without ever triggering an alert.

The Simple Fix: Compare SKUs Monthly

You do not need a full audit every week. You just need a consistent monthly SKU comparison.

A monthly review shows you:

• Which items have drifted

• Which discounts no longer match agreements

• Which suppliers are changing early

• Which parts are costing you more without notice

Once you have this data, you can make quick corrections before busy season kicks in.

Contractors who do this protect their margins. Contractors who wait until mid-winter lose money they never see.

Want to Know How Exposed You Are?

Most HVAC contractors discover more drift than expected when they check. If you want to see where your pricing risk really is, start with a fast evaluation.

Protect My Margins: https://www.3rd-armor.com/supplier-billing-risk-scorecard

This gives you a clear view of pricing accuracy and shows where seasonal drift is already happening.